The forecasting of intense geomagnetic storms
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Las investigaciones recientes han mostrado que las tormentas geomagnéticas intensas se producen cuando llega a la magnetopausa un viento solar que contiene un campo magnético con una componente sur intensa, el cual dura varias horas. La presencia de este tipo de campos se ha tratado de explicar mediante procesos tanto solares como interplanetarios, pero aún no está del todo claro cuál es su origen. En este artículo discutimos el problema general del pronóstico de tormentas geomagnéticas intensas con base en observaciones solares, se hace una revisión de los diferentes enfoques que se han dado a este problema y se extiende un estudio previo respecto a las fuentes solares de las tormentas geomagnéticas de mayor intensidad. La conclusión es que las evidencias apuntan hacia la ocurrencia de eventos solares explosivos (ráfagas o erupción de protuberancias) junto a un hoyo coronal y cerca del meridiano central del Sol como los eventos que potencialmente pueden producir perturbaciones geomagnéticas importantes. Se hacen también algunas sugerencias sobre como el pronóstico puede mejorarse utilizando imágenes en rayos X de los eventos solares, simulaciones MHD numéricas de la generación y propagación de los eventos transitorios en el medio interplanetario y el rastreo de las perturbaciones que viajan en el viento solar por medio de centelleo interplanetario de fuentes de radio celestes.
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