Feedback effects of atmospheric CO2 -induced warming
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Resumen
Utilizando un modelo termodinámico del clima, se lleva a cabo un estudio sobre los cambios en la temperatura y precipitación debidos a una duplicación del contenido atmosférico de CO2 y sobre la importancia relativa, en la temperatura, de los mecanismos de retroalimentación asociados con los aumentos de vapor de agua, nieve-hielo y nubosidad. Los factores de retroalimentación del modelo termodinámico son similares a los de los modelos de Hansen et al. (1984) y Schlesinger (1986). El factor de retroalimentación de los tres mecanismos combinados es 4.0. Los resultados dependen en forma importante del contenido de vapor de agua en la banda del CO2 (12-19 m). El aumento de temperatura debido a la duplicación de CO2 es igual a 1.2° C cuando existe vapor de agua en dicha banda y es igual a 3.5° C cuando no hay vapor de agua. Los resultados muestran que una posible causa de las grandes diferencias en las soluciones obtenidas con diferentes modelos podrían ser las discrepancias en la cantidad y distribución del vapor de agua en la atmósfera, y en el tratamiento de su efecto en la banda del CO2.
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