Two practical rules for forecasting the number of flares in an active region

Abstract

Employing pattern recognition methods and on the basis of previous relations, two practical rules and a suffient criterion are formulated for forecasting the number of flares in an active region. It is demonstrated that the ikelihood of the method is superior to the best trivial forecast and for each case the percentage of correct forecasts or its effectivity is evaluated. It is shown that these rules, based upon the informativity of the variables, are independent of the phase of the cycle.