Causas, efectos y posibilidades de predicción de las fluctuaciones y los cambios climáticos

Barra lateral del artículo

PDF
Publicado: oct 1, 1976
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1976.16.4.1004
Palabras clave:
Atmósfera, Fluctuaciones climáticas, Predicción, Causas, Efectos

Contenido principal del artículo

Julián Adem
Colegio Nacional y Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Geofisica

Resumen

Se presenta un análisis comparativo y una evaluación de las cambios y fluctuaciones climáticos debido a las siguientes causas: Variación de los parámetros orbitales de la Tierra, variabilidad solar, variaciones del contenido de polvo, bióxido de carbono y ozono, variaciones en las condiciones de la superficie (continentes y océanos); y mecanismos de retroalimentación que existen entre la atmósfera, la superficie de la Tierra (océanos y continentes) y la cubierta de hielo y nieve.

Publication Facts

Metric
This article
Other articles
Peer reviewers 
Revisores: 0
2,4 promedio

Reviewer profiles  N/D

Author statements

Author statements
This article
Other articles
Data availability 
N/A
16%
External funding 
N/D
32% con financiadores
Competing interests 
N/D
11%
Metric
Para esta revista
Other journals
Articles accepted 
Artículos aceptados: 2%
33% aceptado
Days to publication 
16925
145

Indexado: {$indexList}

Editor & editorial board
profiles
Academic society 
Geofísica Internacional
Editora: 
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Instituto de Geofísica

PFL

1 2 3 4 5
Not useful Very useful

Detalles del artículo

Cómo citar
Adem, J. (1976). Causas, efectos y posibilidades de predicción de las fluctuaciones y los cambios climáticos. Geofísica Internacional, 16(4), 203–254. https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1976.16.4.1004
Número
Vol. 16 Núm. 4 (1976): Octubre 1, 1976
Sección
Artículo
Creative Commons License

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.

Citas

ADEM, J., 1964. On the physical basis for the numerical prediction of monthly and seasonal temperatures in the troposphere-ocean-continent system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 92 : 91-104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1964)092<0091:OTPBFT>2.3.CO;2

ADEM, J., 1970. Incorporation of advection of heat by mean wind and by ocean currents in a thermodynamic model for long-range weather prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev. 98 : 776-786. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1970)098<0776:IOAOHB>2.3.CO;2

ADEM, J., 1973. Ocean effects on Weather and Climate, Geofísica Internacional. 13 : 1-71. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1973.13.1.1121

ADEM, J., 1974. Thermodynamic approach for the study of climatic changes. Proceedings of the Symposium on Physical and Dynamic Climatology, Leningrad, August 1971, WMO, No. 347, pp. 359-389. (Disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial.)

ADEM, J., 1976. Sensitivity studies using a climate thermodynamic model, with particular reference to the effect of changing the solar constant. Sometido para su publicación en Journal of Atmospheric Sciences.

ADHEMAR, 1842. Les révolutions de la mer, déluges périodiques, París.

BACASTOW, R. and C. D. KEELING, 1973. Carbon and the biosphere. G. M. Woodwell and E. V. Pecan, Editores, USAEC CONF-720510, p. 86 (NTIS, Springfield, Va.).

BJERKNES, J., 1964. Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction. Advances in Geophysics, 10, Academic Press, New York & London. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(08)60005-9

BUDYKO, M. I., 1969. Effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the earth. Tellus, 21 : 611-619. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1969.tb00466.x

BUDYKO, M. I., 1974. Climate and life. Academic Press, New York and London, 508 pp.

CALLENDAR, G. S., 1938. The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 64 : 223-237. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49706427503

CROLL, J., 1875. Climate and time. London. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/012329a0

DONN, W. L. and D. SHAW., 1975. The evolution of climate. Proceedings of the WMO/IAMAP Symposium on long-term climatic fluctuations, WMO. No. 421, XII, 503 pp. (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

HOFFERT, M. I., 1974. Global distributions of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the fossil-fuel era: A project. Atmos. Environ. 8 : 1225-1249. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0004-6981(74)90003-1

KOPPEN & WEGENER, 1924. Die klimate der geologischen Vorzeit. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9783111491530

LANDSBERG, H. E., 1974. Man-Made Climate Changes, Proceedings of the Symposium on Physical and Dynamic Climatology. Leningrad August 1971, WMO No. 347, pp. 262-303 (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

MANABE, S. and R. T. WETHERALD, 1975. The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 : 3-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003:TEODTC>2.0.CO;2

MILANKOVITCH, M., 1920. Théorie mathématique des phénomènes termiques produits par la radiation solaire. Belgrade.

MILANKOVITCH, M., 1938. Die chronologie des Pleistocäns, Bull, Acad. Sci. Math. et Nat. Belgrade, 4, 49.

MITCHELL, J. M., 1975. Note on Solar Variability and Volcanic Activity as potential sources of climatic variability, the physical basis of climate and climate modelling, GARP Publication Series No. 16, WMO, pp. 127-136 (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

MONIN, A. S., 1972. Weather Forecasting as a problem in Physics. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 199 pp.

MITCHELL, J. M., 1975. Note on Solar Variability and Volcanic Activity as potential sources of climatic variability, the physical basis of climate and climate modelling, GARP Publication Series No. 16, WMO, pp. 127-136 (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

MONIN, A. S., 1972. Weather Forecasting as a problem in Physics. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 199 pp.

NAMIAS, J., 1975. Short Period Climatic variations. Collected Works 1934 through 1974. University of California. San Diego, 905 pp.

NEWCOMB, S., 1876. American Journal of Sciences and Arts, II.

OLIVER, R. C., 1975. On the response of mean temperature to stratospheric dust: an empirical approach (rnanuscrito inédito mencionado por Mitchell (1975).

PHILLIPS, J. and D. FORSYTH, 1972. Plate tectonics, paleomagnetism and the opening of the Atlantic. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 83, p. 1584. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1972)83[1579:PTPATO]2.0.CO;2

SALTZMAN, B. and A. D. VERNEKAR, 1971. Note on the effect on earth orbital radiation variations on climate. J. Geophys. Res., 76 : 4195-4197. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JC076i018p04195

SCHNEIDER, S. H., 1975. On the Carbon Dioxide-Climate Confusion. J. Atmos. Sci. 32 : 2060-2066. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<2060:OTCDC>2.0.CO;2

SELLERS, W. D., 1969. A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system. J. Appl. Meteor. 8 : 392-400. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0392:AGCMBO>2.0.CO;2

SHAW, D. M. and W. L. DONN, 1968. Milankovitch radiation variations. A quanti-tative evaluation. Science, 162 : 1270-1272. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.162.3859.1270

SIMPSON, G. C., 1940. Possible causes of change of climate and their limitations. Proc. Linnean Soc. 152 : 190-219. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1095-8312.1940.tb00257.x

SLEEPER, H.P., Jr., 1970. Bi-stable oscillation modes of the sun and long range predictions of solar activity, NASA Contract No. NAS 8-20082, Northrop Corporation, Huntsville, Ala., 35807, 58 pp.

U. S. NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 1974. Understanding climatic change, a program for action. Report of the Panel on Climatic Variations to the U.S. Committee for GARP.

VARIOS AUTORES, 1974. Physical and Dynamic Climatology, Proceedings of the Symposium on Physical and Dynamical Climatology, Leningrad, August, 1971. WMO No. 347, 381 pp. (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

VARIOS AUTORES, 1975. The physical basis of climate and climate modelling. GARP publication series No. 16, WMO, 265 pp. (disponible en la Organización Meteorológica Mundial).

VERNEKAR, A. D., 1972. Long period global variations of incoming solar radiation. Meteorological Monographs, 12, No. 34. Publicado por American Meteorological Society. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-935704-34-8

VOLTZ, F. E., 1970. Spectral skylight and solar radiance measurements in the Caribbean: maritime aerosols and Sahara dust. J. Atmos. Sci., 27 : 1041-1047. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<1041:SSASRM>2.0.CO;2

WETHERALD, R. T. and S. MANABE, 1975. The effects of changing the solar constant on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 32 : 2044-2059. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<2044:TEOCTS>2.0.CO;2

WILLETT, H. C., 1974. Do recent climatic trends portend and inminent ice age? Geofísica Internacional. 14 : 265-302. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1974.14.4.964

WOERKOM, A. J. J. van, 1953. The astronomical theory of climate changes. Climatic change, evidence, causes and effects. Editado por Harlow Shapley, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 318 pp.