Evaluación del Potencial y la estabilidad de la producción Agrícola con base en índices climáticos para algunas localidades de la republica Mexicana

Abstract

In order to determine the agricultural production potential (PG) based on climatic indexes the historie values of production per hectare in six different locations of Mexico (Chihuahua, Chih.; Hermosillo, Son.; Durango, Dgo.; Morelia, Mich.; Chilpancingo, Gro. y Mérida, Yuc.) were analyzed, adjusting them by least squares with the respective arid clima tic indexes (Al), which are in function of the availability of energy and the rainfall, finding in this way the following relation: PG= 2063(1A)-7206 , through which it can be obtained values similatto the ones recorded for natural systems, thus deducing in each of them an intrinsic clima tic potential. To determine the production stability and its vulnerability to climatic factors of the different zones studied, the maximum negative eigenvalue of the agricultural and natural production matrix (A) (indicator of the dynamics of biological interaction) is compared with the variance of the arid index (o2) (indicator of the adverse ambiental effect). It is considered that the necessary conditions for stability are: A> o2. It is observed that in the northern zone (Chihuahua, Durango and Hermosillo) the instability present is major than in the southern zone (Morelia and Chilpancingo). Mérida is the one that presents a major discrepancy coropared with the other areas.