Simulación y pronóstico de lluvias: una aplicación al Estado de Tlaxcala, México

Abstract

Deterministic and stochastic models of simulation and forecasting of rain are applied to sorne areas of Tlaxcala state (Mexico). The logistic model is used in simulation and forecasting of weekly rain with very good results. For total annual rain we use a multiple smoothing technique based on higher-order polynomials. In forecasting of consecutive days of rain or drought a stochastic Markov chain model is used.