On the dominating processes in the formation and maintenance of long-term atmospheric fluctuations

Abstract

Using real data an spectral nondiabatic model modificated with the help of statistic methods for the most accurate simulation of non-regular fluctuations, is obtained. The model is applied to reproduce the longest atmospheric waves, the results are used to estimate the role of dynamic factors and heat ocean effect in nonperiodic geopotential changes of planetary scales for the periods of three days to a month, to estimate the characteristic times of the effect of nonlinear and linear factors on the hemispherical circulation evolution and to study parameterization methods of subgrid scale motion. A turbulent model with a nonlinear mechanism of turbulent viscosity and a model of atmosphere-ocean interaction for long-range meteorological forecasting, in the absence of initial data in the oceans, are discussed.