Pronóstico adaptivo de huracanes

Abstract

This paper attempts to predict hurricane trajectories. The elements that are analyzed and predicted are the length and the angle of the trajectory and the duration and intensity of the hurricane. In this work, North Atlantic data, from 5° to 30°N and from the African coast to the coast of America were taken into account. For the local analysis of the characteristics of the hurricane, this zone was subdivided in 70 sub-zones of 5 degrees by side. The year was also subdivided in 15 non-isochronic periods. All the other variables are expressed as functions of the zone and the period. The prediction is carried out using orthogonal adaptive polynomials programmed and developed in the 86700 Computer of the UNAM. The prediction obtained in this way yields an average precision of 2°.