The Thar, Rajputana desert unprecedented rainfall in 2006 and 2010: effect of climate change?

Abstract

Rajasthan, India/Pakistan, recorded heavy rainfall in August 2006. This unusual event led to severe floods. In the monsoon season of 2010 there was also high rainfall, but not as heavy as in August 2006. The high rainfall in 2010 occurred during the entire monsoon season, but in 2006 several stations registered very heavy downpour of about 125 mm in 24 hours. A recent study showed that in the future similar extreme events may tend to occur in central India, which includes a part of Rajasthan. These events are studied in the context of a probable climate change using satellite data. The MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation índices (NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and EVI, Enhanced Vegetation Index) and precipitation data from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for 11 years (2000 through 2010) were used. Both NDVI and EVI MODIS (MOD13) revealed unusual growth of vegetation in September 2006 and August and September 2010 over the Rajputana desert. The analysis of rainfall and EVI data confirmed the growth of vegetation in 2006 and 2010, showing the utility of satellite data in capturing changes in this region. Some earlier studies found that the rainfall over West Rajasthan during the monsoon season showed a significant increasing tendency. Thus in the future, a rising tendency of vegetation growth in Rajputana desert seems to be highly plausible.