Stochastic analysis of air and sea surface temperature time series in the North Atlantic

Abstract

Linear-parametric models of sea surface temperature (SST) and air surface temperatures (AST) in the North Atlantic are considered.Theoretical aspects of the application of linear stationary Autoregressive Models (ARM) of observed scalar time seriesare discussed. Some results of the application of the above method to the climatic data are examined. Considerable cooling ofSST and ASTin the XXth century is marked for the region north to 44°N. Annually averaged series of AST and SST are bestfitted with low-order ARM and the first order prevails. Seasonally averaged series are best fitted with orders higher than 1.