Prediction of interplanetary shock waves using cosmic ray fluctuations

Abstract

In the present paper the authors propose to use spectral autoregressive methods in order to improve the detection of variations in the spectral composition of the cosmic ray intensity and in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field. By using this methodology, some regularities in the variation of the power spectra of the cosmic ray intensity are determined immediately before the arrival of a shock wave to Earth. So, the shock wave arrival is preceded by the appearance of a wave with period of 4 to 8 hours in the power spectra of the Bz component. The results confirm the possibility of the use of the cosmic rays and the geomagnetic activity as a tool for the diagnosis of the interplanetary environment and also for the prediction of the arrival of powerful shock waves to Earth, 1- 2 days in advance.