Reservoir induced seismic hazard using principal component analysis

Abstract

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) associated with the parameters conducive to reservoir induced seismicity have been computed based on 37 cases throughout the world. It was found that the first EOF explained 54% variance. It showed a correlation of 0.38 with the maximum magnitude of earthquakes and had large loadings for reservoir volume and the time lag of the occurrence of the largest earthquake since the filling of the reservoir. The second EOF which explained about 33% variance however, showed largest loading for the height of the reservoir but had a correlation of only 0.10 with these parameters. By including the maximum magnitude of the earthquake as the fourth parameter, the first two EOF's explained only about 73% variance as compared to 87% with the three parameters. The combined influence of the reservoir volume and the time lag appears to be more important than the height of the reservoir from the view of hazard assessment.