A probabilistic prediction of the next strong earthquake in the Acapulco-San Marcos segment, Mexico

Abstract

Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this study we assume a gamma and a lognormal distribution for the recurrence time intervals of large earthquakes. The seismic process in the Acapulco-San Marcos fault-segment can be modelled as a renewal process, using a list of historical strong earthquakes (M_s≥7). For the gamma model, a highly damaging earthquake (M_s≥7) may occur approximately before August 2016 ± 5.14 (yrs). For the lognormal model, a highly damaging strong earthquake (M_s≥7) may occur aproximately before July 2016 ± 5.15 (yrs).