Estimación local de riesgo sísmico mediante simulación estocástica
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
Se presenta un método para la estimación del riesgo sísmico en regiones cuya historia de sismicidad es incompleta Y. para las cuales no se cuenta con datos de aceleración, basado en simulaciones pseudoaleatorias del proceso sísmico con un mínimo de suposiciones. La aplicación de este método a la estimación del riesgo sísmico para la planta nuclear de Laguna Verde, México (basada en suposiciones simplistas), indica que una estimación pesimista del riesgo para un período de 50 años es del orden de 6.0%, para la aceleración de OBE de 0.12g y del orden de 0.97% para la aceleración de SSE de 0.24g.
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
Citas
AKI, K., 1965. Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a - b M and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., 43, 237-239.
ARCHULETA, R. and P. SPUDICH, 1982. Analysis of near-source static and dynamic measurements from the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake. Proc. Workshop XVI The Dynamic Characteristics of Faulting lnferred from Recordings of Strong Ground Motion. U.S.G.S. Open File Rept. 784 - 838.
BAUMGARTNER, G. and B. RAST, 1982. Probabilistic evaluation of design earthquakes. Seminar on Safety Aspects of Nuclear Power Plant Siting, Vienna, Nov. 1982.
BOATWRIGHT, J., 1982. Introduction. Proc. Workshop XVI. The Dynamic Characteristics of Faulting Inferred from Recordings of Strong Ground Motion. U. S. G. S. Open File Rept. 82-591, 2-12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr82591
BRUNE, J., 1970. Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res., 75, 4997-5009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB075i026p04997
BRUNE, J., 1971. Correction. J. Geophys. Res., 76, 5002. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB076i020p05002
CAMPBELL, K., 1982. Near source scaling characteristics of peak horizontal accelerations for moderate-to-large earthquakes. Proc. Workshop SVI The Dynamic Characteristics of Faulting lnferred from Recordings of Strong Ground Motion. U.S.G.S. Open File Rept. 82-591, 120-184.
CHIARUTTINI, C. and L. SIRO, 1981. The correlation of peak ground horizontal acceleration with magnitude, distance, and seismic intensity for Friuli and Ancona, Italy and the Alpine Belt. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 1993-2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0710061993
CORNELL, C., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 1583-1606. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0580051583
DAVENPORT, A., 1968. A statistical relationship between shock amplitude, magnitude, and epicentral distance and its applications to seismic zoning. Univ. Western Ontario, Fac. Eng. Sci., BLWT-4-72.
ESTEVA, L., 1968. Bases para la formulación de decisiones de diseño sísmico. UNAM, Inst. Ing. Rep. 182.
ESTEVA, L. and R. VILLA VERDE, 1972. Seismic Risk, design spectra and structural reliability. Proc. 5th World Conf. Earthquake Eng., Rome, 2586-2597.
ESTEVA, L., 1976. Seismicity. In: Seismic risk and engineering decisions. Lomnitz, C. and E. Rosenbluth Eds., Elsevier Pub. Co., 179-224. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-41494-6.50009-6
GAUS, l. and M. SHERIF, 1972. Zonation and microzonation. Proc. Int. Conf. Microzonation, Seattle, 1972, 3-11.
GUPTA, l., and O. NUTTLI, 1976. Spatial attenuation of intensities for central U. S. earthquakes. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 66, 743-751. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0660030743
GUTENBERG, B. and C. RICHTER, 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 34, 185-188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185
HANKS, T. and H. KANAMORI, 1979. A moment magnitude scale. J. Geophys. Res., 84, 2348-2350. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB05p02348
JOHNSON, L., and W. SILVA, 1981. The effects of unconsolidated sediments upon the ground motion during local earthquakes. Bull Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 127-142.
JOYNER, W. and D. BOORE, 1981. Peak acceleration and velocity from strong-motion records from the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquake. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 2011-2038. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0710062011
KAGAN, Y. and L. KNOPOFF, 1977. Earthquake risk prediction as a stochastic process. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 14, 97-108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0031-9201(77)90147-9
KAGAN, Y. and L. KNOPOFF, 1980. Spatial distribution of earthquakes. The two-point correlation function. Geophys. J. R. Astr. Soc., 62, 302-320. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1980.tb04857.x
LAHR, J. and C. STEPHENS, 1982. Alaska seismic zone: possible example of non-linear magnitude distribution for faults. Earthquake notes, 53, 66.
LOMNITZ, C., 1974. Global tectonics and earthquake risk. Developments in Geotectonics, Vol. 5, Elsevier Pub. Co., 320 pp.
LOMNITZ, C., 1981. Environmental siting of power plants. Bull. Int. Assoc. Eng. Geol., 23, 33-36. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02594724
LOMNITZ, C., 1983. Seismicity and earthquake risk at the NPP site of Laguna Verde, Veracruz. Geofísica Internacional, 22, 113-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1983.22.2.874
LOMNITZ, C. and F. NAVA, 1983. The predictive value of seismic gaps. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 73, 1815-1824.
McGARR, A., 1982. Upper bounds of near-source ground motion based on a model of inhomogeneous faulting. Proc. Workshop XVI, The Dynamic Characteristics of Faulting Inferred from Recordings of Strong Ground Motion. U.S.G.S. Open File Rept. 82-591, 562-586.
MILNE, W. and A. DAVENPORT, 1969. Earthquake probability. Proc. 4th. World Conf. Earthquake Eng., Santiago. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4095/8523
MURPHY, J. and L. O'BRIEN, 1977. The correlation of peak ground acceleration amplitude with seismic intensity and other physical parameters. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 67, 877-915. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0670030877
PAUL, D., V. SINGH and N. KUMAR, 1980. A guide to acceleration, velocity and displacement relationships with distance and magnitude. Bull. Indian Soc. Earthq. Technology, 15, 13-22.
RICHTER, C., 1958. Elementary seismology. Freeman, 768 pp.
SEED, H. and P. SCHNABEL, 1972. Soil and geologic effects on site response during earthquakes. Proc. Int. Conf. Microzonation, Seattle, 1972, 61-85.
SINGH, S., M. RODRIGUEZ and L. ESTEVA, 1983. Statistics of small earthquakes and frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 73, 1779-1796.
SLEMMONS, D., 1972. Microzonation for surface faulting. Proc. Int. Conf. Microzonation, Seattle, 1972, 348-361.
VANMARCKE, E. and C. CORNELL, 1969. Statistical study of earthquake loading and response of structures. IV WCEE, Chile, 1969.
VERE-JONES, D., 1970. Stochastic models for earthquake occurrence. J. R. Stat. Soc., B32, 1-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1970.tb00814.x
