Estimación local de riesgo sísmico mediante simulación estocástica

Abstract

A method is presented for the estimation of seismic risk in regions whose seismic history is complete and for which no acceleration data exists, based on Monte Cario Simulations of the seismic process, using a minimum of assumptions. Application of this method to the estimation of seismic risk for the nuclear power plant at Laguna Verde, Mexico (based on rough assumptions), indicates that a pessimistic estimation for the risk for a 50 year period is about 6.0% for the OBE acceleration of0.12g, and about 0.97% for the SSE acceleration of 0.24g.