Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperatura anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

A thermodynamic model is used to predict the mean monthly sea surface temperature anomalies and their month-to-month changes in the Gulf of Mexico. The basic predicting equation of the Model is the thermal energy equation applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean, which includes the horizontal transport of heat by seasonal ocean currents and by turbulent eddies, as well as the heating by short and long-wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat. A comparative study is carried out on the relative importance for the prediction of the heating and transport terms. An objective verification of the predictions is presented for each season and for the whole period from March 1986 to February 1987, which shows skill in the signs correctly predicted of the sea surface temperature anomalies, as well as of their month-to-month changes, when the heating terms are only included in the predictions. However, the skill is increased when the horizontal transport of heat is also included.