Numerical prediction of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans

Abstract

The conservation of thermal energy equation applied to the upper mixed layer of the oceans is used for the prediction of the sea surface temperature anomalies and their month - to - month changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The equation includes horizontal transport of heat by ocean currents and by horizontal turbulent mixing as well as heating by short and long wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat. As input we use the sea surface temperature, the 850 mb temperature and the atmospheric surface pressure in the previous month as well as their corresponding normal values. A comparative study is carried out on the relative importance of the heating and transport terms and of the change in the grid distance. An objetive verification of the prediction is presented for the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for the 48-month period from June 1980 to May 1984. Some degree of skill in the predictions is due to the heating terms. The best skill is obtained when the horizontal transport of heat by turbulent mixing and surface ocean currents is also included. The skill is substantially increased in the semi-prediction for which the wind drift ocean currents and the heating are computed with the atmospheric surface pressure and the 850 mb-temperature for the current month, instead of the previous month.