Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes

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Published: Apr 1, 1992
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1992.31.2.570
Keywords:
Solar flares, Solar forecasting

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I. Ferro Ramos
Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy, Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba
J. Pérez Doval
Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy, Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba
T. Cepero Chao
Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy, Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba

Abstract

With the help of shell ARIES two expert systems are obtained for forecasting the occurrence of flares associated with the C and D Zurich classes: one for daily forecasting of the flare situation (expert system FUL) and the other for flares that occur 24 hours after the observation of the associated sunspot group (expert system FULGOR). General effectiveness of the bases is 80%. They operate upon 44% of sunspot-day which produce 66% of flares. In both cases, the quality of the forecast liS better than the effectiveness of the best trivial forecasting, the blind one.

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How to Cite
Ferro Ramos, I., Pérez Doval, J., & Cepero Chao, T. (1992). Expert systems for forecasting solar flares associated to C and D Zurich classes. Geofisica Internacional, 31(2), 151–153. https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1992.31.2.570
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Vol. 31 No. 2 (1992): April 1, 1992
Section
Article
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References

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