Two practical rules for forecasting the number of flares in an active region

Article Sidebar

PDF (Español (España))
Published: Apr 1, 1992
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1992.31.2.571
Keywords:
Solar flares, Solar cycle

Main Article Content

I, Ferro Ramos
Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy, Institute of Mathematics, Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba
N: López Reyes
Institute of Geophysics and Astronomy, Institute of Mathematics, Cuban Academy of Sciences, Havana, Cuba

Abstract

Employing pattern recognition methods and on the basis of previous relations, two practical rules and a suffient criterion are formulated for forecasting the number of flares in an active region. It is demonstrated that the ikelihood of the method is superior to the best trivial forecast and for each case the percentage of correct forecasts or its effectivity is evaluated. It is shown that these rules, based upon the informativity of the variables, are independent of the phase of the cycle.

Article Details

How to Cite
Ferro Ramos, I., & López Reyes, N. (1992). Two practical rules for forecasting the number of flares in an active region. Geofisica Internacional, 31(2), 155–158. https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1992.31.2.571
Issue
Vol. 31 No. 2 (1992): April 1, 1992
Section
Article
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

References

BERNSHTEIN, P. B. and V. A. BUROV, 1976. In: Birth and evolution of active regions at the Sun, Nauka, Moscow, pp. 186-189.

BUROV, V. A. Ibid. 142-145.

BUROV, V. A., 1981. Phys. Solariterr., 16, 106-118. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/chq.1981.0012

JAKlMEC, W. et al., 1980. Solar Terrestrial Proc., 3, p. C54.

LOPEZ, N. and I. FERRO, 1987. Solar Data. 3, 71-79.

BRAVO, A., 1983. Revista Ciencias Matemáticas, IV, 2, 123-144.