Probabilidad de ocurrencia de temblores sucesivos de magnitud en la Ciudad de México

Abstract

Nearly 250 successive earthquakes felt in Mexico City, comprising magnitudes which ranged from 3.5 or greater and focal depth smaller than abou t 70 Km, have been used lo study aspects of the scismicity of the Central Region of Mexico, the relation between the N number of earthquakes, and their magnitude, as well as their interpre tation in connection with the Upper Mantle structure. The relation between the magn itude and the frequency is investigated using the Gutenberg-Richter equation. The particular form that this formula takes to describe the seismicity of the Central Region of Mexico, is approximately.

log 10 N(M) =4.54 - 0.55 M

Next, a procedure is developed for estimating the probability that a successive earthquake of specilic magnitude mj will occur after an earthquake of given magnitude M¡ has already occurred. The distribulion of "probabilities of transition" of successive carthquakes indicates evidence of a systematic tendency in the occurrence of successive earthquakcs in the Central Region of Mexico.