Prediction of interplanetary shock waves using cosmic ray fluctuations
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Resumen
En el trabajo se propone usar métodos espectrales y autorregresivos para mejorar los procesos de detección de variaciones en la composición espectral de la intensidad de rayos cósmicos y de la componente Bz del campo magnético interplanetario. Usando esta metodología, se determinaron algunas regularidades en la variación del espectro de potencias de la intensidad de los rayos cósmicos antes del arribo de una onda de choque a la Tierra. Así, el arribo de la onda de choque es precedido por la aparición de una onda con período de 4 a 8 horas en el espectro de potencias de la componente Bz del campo magnético. Los resultados confirman la posibilidad de usar los rayos cósmicos y la actividad geomagnética para el diagnóstico del medio interplanetario y la predicción del arribo de ondas de choque a la Tierra, con una anticipación de 1 a 2 días.
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