Three-months extended and seasonal forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for thermodynamic climate prediction
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
La ecuación de conservación de energía térmica aplicada a la capa de mezcla oceánica se utiliza para la predicción de las anomalías de la temperatura de la superficie del mar y de sus cambios mensuales para periodos extendidos de tres meses, así como para la predicción estacional de estas anomalías en los océanos Pacífico y Atlántico del Hemisferio Norte. La ecuación incluye el transporte horizontal de calor por corrientes oceánicas y por remolinos turbulentos, así como calentamiento por radiación de onda corta y larga, evaporación y calor sensible cedido a la atmósfera por transporte turbulento vertical. En este trabajo llevamos a cabo una verificación de las predicciones para el periodo de junio 1980 a mayo 1984; los resultados muestran que este modelo tiene cierta habilidad en la predicción de las anomalías de la temperatura de la superficie del mar de gran escala y de sus cambios mensuales para periodos extendidos de tres meses, así como en la predicción estacional de estas anomalías.
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
Citas
ADEM, J., 1962. On the theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Tellus 14, 102-115. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1962.tb00123.x
ADEM, J., 1964. On the physical basis for the numerical prediction of monthly and seasonal temperatures in the troposphere-ocean-continent system. Mon. Weather Rev., 92, 91-104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1964)092<0091:OTPBFT>2.3.CO;2
ADEM, J., 1967. Parameterization of atmospheric humidity using cloudiness and temperature. Mon. Weather Rev., 95, 83-88. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1967)095<0083:POAHUC>2.3.CO;2
ADEM, J., 1969. Numerical prediction of mean monthly ocean temperatures. J. Geophys. Res., 74, 1104-1108. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JB074i004p01104
ADEM, J., 1970. On the prediction of mean monthly ocean temperature. Tellus, 22, 410-430. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1970.tb00507.x
ADEM, J., 1975. Numerical-thermodynamical prediction of mean monthly ocean temperature. Tellus, 27, 541-551. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1975.tb01709.x
ADEM, J. AND W. J. JACOB, 1968. One year experiment in numerical prediction of monthly mean temperature in the atmosphere-ocean-continent system. Mon Weather Rev., 96, 714-719. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096<0714:OYEINP>2.0.CO;2
ADEM, J. and V.M. MENDOZA, 1987. Sensitivity experiments on ocean temperature predictions with a thermodynamic climate model. Geofísica Internacional, 4, 525-543. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1987.26.4.1102
ADEM, J. and V. M. MENDOZA, 1988. Recent numerical-thermodynamic experiments on sea surface temperature prediction. Geofísica Internacional, 27, 309-325. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1988.27.3.1203
ADEM, J., E. E. VILLANUEVA and V. M. MENDOZA, 1994. Preliminary experiments on the prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico. Geofísica Internacional, 33, 511-521. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1994.33.4.585
ADEM, J., V. M. MENDOZA nd E. E. VILLANUEVA, 1995. Numerical prediction of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Geofísica Internacional, 34, 149-160. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22201/igeof.00167169p.1995.34.2.730
ADEM, J., V. M. MENDOZA, ALFREDO RUÍZ, E. E. VILLANUEVA and R. GARDUÑO, 1997. Monthly extended and seasonal prediction with a thermodynamic model and its verification in Mexico. WMO International Workshop on Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting; Toulouse, France, 17-21 Nov. 1997. PWPR Report Series, Project No. 11, WMO/TD881, 58-63.
BUDYKO, M. I., 1956. The heat balance of the Earth surface (Teflovoi balans zemnoi foverkhnosti). Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 254 pp. (Translated from the original Russian by N. A. Stepanova, U. S. Weather Bureau, 1958).
CLARK, N. E., 1967. Report on an investigation of large scale heat transfer processes and fluctuations of sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific Ocean. Ph. D. Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 148pp.
CLARK, N. E., 1972. Specification of sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in the eastern North Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 2 ,391-404. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1972)002<0391:SOSSTA>2.0.CO;2
DAVIS, R. E., 1976. Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 6, 249-266. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1976)006<0249:POSSTA>2.0.CO;2
EBER, L. E., 1961. Effects of wind-induced advection of sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 66, 839-844. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ066i003p00839
FRANKIGNOUL, C., 1985. Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes. Rev. Geophys. 23, 357-390. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/RG023i004p00357
HANEY, R. L., S. S. WAYNE and K. H. HUNT, 1978. A dynamical-numerical study of the formation and evolution of large-scale ocean anomalies. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 8, 952-969. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1978)008<0952:ADNSOT>2.0.CO;2
JACOBS, W. C., 1951. The energy exchange between the sea and the atmosphere and some of its consequences. Bull. Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, Univ. of California, 6, 27-122.
JACOB, W. J., 1967. Numerical semi-prediction of monthly sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 72, 1681-1689. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ072i006p01681
NAMIAS, J., 1959. Recent seasonal interactions between North Pacific waters and the overlying atmospheric circulations. J. Geophys. Res., 64, 631-646. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ064i006p00631
NAMIAS, J., 1965. Macroscopic association between mean monthly sea surface temperature and the overlying winds. J. Geophys. Res., 70, 2307-2318. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ070i010p02307
NAMIAS, J., 1972. Experiments in objectively predicting some atmospheric and oceanic variables for the winter of 1971-72. J. Appl. Meteorol., 11, 1164-1174. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1972)011<1164:EIOPSA>2.0.CO;2
U.S. NAVY, 1981. Marine Climatic Atlas of the World (World-Wide Means and Standard Deviations), Vol. IX.
WYRTKI, K., 1961. The thermohaline circulation in relation to the general circulation in the oceans. Deep Sea Res., 8, 39-64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0146-6313(61)90014-4